Needs for seeds

published 17 October 2022 08:24

Availability of seeds as an impact factor of expected sowing areas of main crops for the harvest of 2023

The Essence of the Issue. The agricultural sector of Ukraine continues to operate in significant turbulence and uncertain conditions with regard to market prospects. Disparate demand prices, compared to the global situation, lead to the accumulation of losses and provoke the gradual curtailment of production. At the same time, the results of experts’ surveys indicate that most farmers, despite the negative economic results, are trying to continue their operations at the same level. Hence, the need of supporting and stimulating the agrarian sector in 2023 remains extremely urgent. The availability and supply of seeds can be considered as one of the basic elements for conducting a successful sowing campaign for the 2023 harvest and as an indicator of the sustainability of the agrarian sector of Ukraine in 2023.

Current Forecasts. According to the results of the conducted survey ("DAR", October 2022), the sown areas of spring crops may decrease by 21% compared to 2022. In general, 67% of respondents plan to reduce the sown area of spring crops with regard to all of the spring crops with some exceptions.

Spring crops sowing area planned changes in 2023 compared to 2022, farmers’ survey.

Crops were ranked by sowing area

Source: Ministry of Agrarian Policy, survey results


The largest reduction in the sowing area is expected due to a decrease in soybeans, sunflowers, corn, and spring wheat.

Structural changes in the sown area of spring crops 

Source: Ministry of Agrarian Policy, survey results

Seeds as a Sowing Impact Factor. According to calculations, seeds, depending on the sowing culture, accounts for 10% to 15% of the total cost structure. The results of the conducted survey indicate that the costs and availability of seeds are rather sensitive factors that impact the farmer's production plan setup.

Most respondents’ (71%) answers revealed that access to additional seeds (free of charge) would encourage them to increase the sown areas. According to calculations, an additional free seeds supply may result in an 8% sowing area increase in comparison to the 2022 season. In general, the farmers who took part in the survey would be ready to increase their own sown areas by 38% compared to current expectations if free-of-charge seeds would be available.

As a study reveals, the highest response of free seed supplies in the sown area was registered with regard to sunflower, corn, buckwheat, spring wheat, barley, etc.

Spring crops sowing area planned changes in 2023 compared to 2022 (free seeds assumption), farmers’ survey 

Crops were ranked by sowing area

Source: Ministry of Agrarian Policy, survey results

Considering the results of the survey and the available sown area data in 2022, the incentive measures to provide additional free seed may facilitate agricultural activity in the area of at least 3.6 million hectares in 2023.

Scenario forecasts of the sown area in 2023, thousand ha


2022 year

Forecast 2023
(scenario: general)

Forecast 2023
(additional seed)

Need for seeds, k ha

Need for seeds, k tons

Price, $ / 1 seed units.

Total costs, $ million

Total

12 138

9 596

13 206

3 636

194,0

-

322,6

corn

4 225

3 844

5 036

1 192

23,8

120

143,0

sunflower

4 696

3 268

4 674

1 405

21,1

90

126,5

soya

1 523

921

1 237

316

37,9

75

23,7

spring barley and wheat

1 051

895

1 248

353

69,0

56

19,6

spring rapeseed

23

49

74

51

0,20

99

5,1

oat

152

124

179

55

11,1

72

4,0

sorghum

16

15

31

16

0,1

49

0,8

others

452

480

727

248

31

-

-

Source: Ministry of Agrarian Policy, survey results

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